let's unpack the current state of WWIII

    Let's clean up some misconceptions.  the talking heads in the media and internet world are a buzz with are we standing at the edge of World War three? Are the Russian attacks in the Ukraine going to throw us into a new world war or nuclear destruction?  or will China attack Taiwan and plunge us into the next global war?  and now will Israels blindside on Iran force us into a new Mideast war?

    the short answer to all these is NO. 

    well look at the Russian war first since we are already into season 3 of the war.  and the fighting is almost a stalemate with the Russians making small advances and the Ukraine's making strides.  it has boiled down to a tit for tat war.  the Russians are losing home support and keep conscripting more and more men to throw into the meat grinder, the Ukraine's are fighting with whoever can hold a weapon but are making amazing holds and attacks.  Russia does not have the air power supremacy, nor the Naval might, to keep going.  This war has put on display the abject failure that is the mighty Russian bear.  from the equipment to the training of it fighting forces.  

Yet we still hear in the media that Russia is a formattable army one to be feared, yet we see over and over again this is simply false.  But they are a nuclear nation.  so, what that means nothing when you do not have the capacity to use the weapons and by most reports the Russian nuclear strike force is not maintained to the levels needed. and they know if they ever use a WMD it is certain death for them, and they understand the MAD (mutually assured destruction) posture we have taken since the 1950's

The Russian military is a false dragon but makes for a great boogie man for the media.  one to keep talking about to put fear into the masses and force BILLIONS into weapons spending.

    On to China, China have been eyeing Taiwan for 30 years and have threaten to invade for the last 5 or so.  But will they?  again, the answer is no, The CCP understands that they cannot win a out and out fight against the west.  the Chinese are boxed in the economy of the nation is teetering on a knifes edge.  the military boasting the largest in the world is all but a joke.  the Navy states it's the largest, but is it?  well, if you count anything that floats as a naval war ship than yes it the largest BUT you measure a navy buy displacement tonnage and China does not even come close to the US in tonnage China has an estimated tonnage of 2 million tons, where the United States has an estimated 370 tons.  its not even close.  then couple that with the lack luster technology, the graft in the military the garbage weapons platforms lack of training and chain of command then pepper in the fact that they are not battle hardened and all that adds up to a recipe for failure and disaster.   

CHINA IS NOT THE THREAT ITS MADE OUT TO BE yet another monster under the bed the media can call on to scare the masses

    Now the one in the forefront the Israel and Iran conflict man a lot to unpack in this one.  the IDF made a decision to surprise the Iranian regime with a fast coordinated attack on all accessible nuclear refinement, research, and testing installations as well as the ballistic missile sites.  the Israelis also shattered the Iran's air defense capabilities all in less that 24 hours.  Isriel at the same time killed most of the top Iranian military leadership and leading nuclear scientist.  as soon as a new head is appointed, they are killed with in a day of taking the leadership role.   Isriel commands full control of the skies over Iran and are doing air to air refueling over the battle ground.  Iran has done some retaliation in the first day sending over 200 missiles and drones much of which were intercepted by the iron dome. now both sides have sustained casualties and hundreds of injuries, but the bulk of the death and injuries are in and around Iran.  The United States stated that they had no idea that this was about to take place but are aiding Isriel with shooting down of incoming ordinates to Israel.  the US stated it will not directly aid Israel unless any of our assets in the region is targeted by Iran or any of its proxies.  

    we are now a few days into the fighting and the Iranian forces are all but demolished they have restricted missile and drone attacks to about 30 strikes a night due to the launchers being detected and destroyed by the IDF.  Iran reached out to Russia for help and Putin made a call to Washington and was told NO were not steeping in on this Israel is a Sovern nation with the ability to make its own defense decisions.  Then Putin told the Iran sorry, but it is in your best interest to make a deal.  Russia is in no position to help.  China is only giving some fueling materials for the Iran's missiles, and no other support. Syria gave Isriel permission to fly threw their air space to conduct air raids in Iran, Egypt, gave a emotionless speech as did Jordan. Hamas released a press release giving emotional support but not pledging any other.  Pakistan was the only country to state well help only if a nuclear weapon is used by Isriel against Iran.  They know all too well that the likelihood of that transpiring is at about zero. Iran has no one to turn to and no way out.

    So why did Isriel strike?  the media smoke screen is that they were afraid of a nuclear Iran and that the state was only weeks to months away from the bomb.  But they been saying this for 30 years now.  I do not believe this was the case.  I feel Isriel looked at the deck of cards and made a determination NOW is the time.  and it's for regime change.  I say this for a few reasons

1, Isriel destroyed Hezbollah Iran's proxy army in Lebanon

2, Isriel destroyed Hamas Iran's proxy army in Gaza

3, the US destroyed the Houthi's in Yemin and Isriel levied more attacks against them.

4, Iran have been going through internal strife with the younger citizens wanting out from under the Islamic republic thumb and more freedoms.

5, Iran's economic system is in ruins and weak

6, the defense force is weak and was vulnerable 

    All this added up to the perfect time to lay an attack and decapitate the Iranian government.  it has very little to do with WMD's but everything to do with regime change.   but if the regime stays in power this strike sets back their nuclear program by decades, at the same time destroying the air force and air defense systems making the country weak and setting it back on its heals for decades to come. 

    But none of this is a spring bord for WWIII Iran has no friends who will help them ( or can ), no major alliances or treaties that will bind others to aid in its defense.  they are on an island in the sand all alone.  

    I feel the media talking heads are hyping this all for click bate. if it bleeds it leads was always the saying in the news.  and was and strife all bleed and make for great copy.  But I can be wrong stranger things to happen.   But I just do not see an escalation of any great magnitude.  I feel bombs will drop for a while longer and then talks will start, the US and Isreal will play good cop, bad cop and the fighting will end.  there will be no regime change the Islamic state will continue the nuclear program will be scrapped and a carrot of trade will be presented. this is my thought.

   The only way a regime change will take place will be via a popular uprising within Iran started by students. NOT but an outside force.